I am hooked on Bananagrams. I suspect I'm not alone,
because this board-less version of Scrabble has been
flying off the shelves. Now that I have a few games
under my belt, I have learned that one of the
secrets to winning the game is the willingness to
revisit your work and at times dismantle it.
Each player starts with 15 letters
and races to create intersecting words. You may bask
in your mastery of the English language as you
admire your ability to put together "loquacious,"
but then the game gets interesting, because it keeps
going. As you find a place for all your letters you
keep "peeling" additional letters from the pile and
have to incorporate them into your words. Sometimes
additions fit nicely. Other times they require a
rebuilding process that involves painful dismantling
of even the most loquacious, in order to build
quandary and luscious.
During
a recent big win (okay I beat a 10 year old and an 8
year old, but a win is a win) I was struck by how a
successful approach to Bananagrams echoes an
important modeling practice. Even the most
magnificent model may need to be pulled apart to
continue to function magnificently as conditions
change. This edition of
In the Know
discusses some of the game changers that may compel
you to tweak to your model, rearrange pieces and
start anew.
Planning models are like puzzles, and when pieces
are all in place - linking assumptions, planning
elements and outcomes - the last thing you want to
do is pull it apart. But our institutions and
operating circumstances evolve and there are times
when new pieces come into play and models need to be
reworked, jettisoned or even shuttered to make way
for a new model.
A well-designed model should have a range of motion
that can accommodate a spectrum and combination of
what-ifs. Then as dramatic shifts in circumstances
and inquiry emerge, planners must incorporate new
concepts and flexibilities, even to the most
dazzling tool. Otherwise, it becomes an outdated
exhibit, which is the antithesis of a forward
looking tool.
When to tweak assumptions
A good model enables and compares multiple
scenarios. It should accommodate changes to
variables such as endowment performance and
spending, capital initiatives, staffing and
enrollment without requiring any reconstruction.
What may have changed:
A fitting model may need a tweak along the lines of
changing financial aid from a discount rate, to a
function of budget and fundraising goals or
projecting auxiliary revenues as a function of
campus populations and service levels, as opposed to
a flat growth rate. These are expected evolutions as
a tool settles in alongside the enterprise.
When to add new dimensions
As your institution considers new business
strategies you may want to add layers to your
planning model.
What may have changed:
You may want to evaluate diversified revenue
strategies such as patent rights, new residency
programs for traditional or non-traditional
students, and research pursuits. These
considerations can be added in to your model. New
revenue sources can be added to existing revenue
sources and enable projections for all possible
sources of funds.
When to spin off details
While a comprehensive model can pull together all
sources of revenue and expenses, one size cannot
ever meet all planning needs.
What may have changed:
Your comprehensive planning model may provide a
model of current enrollment strategy, but your board
wants to consider multiple tuition pricing and
financial aid strategies. You will want to develop a
stand-alone enrollment model that can accommodate
multiple strategy options and accompanying details.
Outcomes of the pricing analysis can feed into the
comprehensive model, without bogging down the bigger
picture model with more finite analysis.
When to build a new one
If you built your model more than a couple of years
ago I suspect it focused on the elements of growth
and balance sheet outcomes such as borrowing,
capital projects and endowment assets.
What may have changed:
While these are still critical elements of your
long-range plan, you find that you need more robust
strategies for your operating budget, down to
specific programs. A balance sheet oriented model
does not answer these questions, which merit their
own planning environment. Once again different
planning pieces can fit together, but one size does
not fit all inquiries.
These are not static times. Now more than ever
institutions have challenges and opportunities to
ask "what-if?". Informed strategy considers the
implications of these what-ifs as thoroughly as
possible before implementation. These dynamic times
demand dynamic planning tools. A planning model that
doesn't evolve is comparable to an old phone book.
It sits on the shelf until a more updated resource
is available, but some information is now obsolete.
Good tools provide what you need when you need it.
Changing, jettisoning or even building a new model
does not mean your original model wasn't an
excellent tool. Change reflects responsiveness to
new pieces of the puzzle. Making room for the new,
even when disrupting what is in place, is often a
winning strategy.